MARKETS UPDATE (3:00 am EST)
As we entered the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S., equity markets rose steeply, which is something we expect going into any holiday weekend. We note, however, that Friday is the dead center of a very strong general reversal zone. This means a peak and a sharp downturn could be imminent. As I have noted in previous blogs, we are well into the current medium-term cycles in all three broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ), and we are waiting for the final corrective descent into the final cycle bottoms for all three. That corrective fall should last 2 -5 weeks. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ satisfied that requirement with last Friday's lows, but the DOW did not. This makes me think the DOW will turn down before making a new high and push lower to its final cycle bottom soon. Ideally, this will happen before the end of the reversal zone next Thursday (Dec. 4). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ may also make new lows, although they don't have to. If they don't, it would give us a good bullish divergence signal and a possible spot to buy for another rally (a possible "Santa Claus" rally often seen in December). I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.
We are still waiting for the final bottom to longer-term cycles in gold that should bring prices back down to around $3300. I had predicted that low as early as the end of this month, but prices have been reluctant to fall below $4000, so it looks like we will have to extend the window for a bottom a bit longer - probably to the end of December, or even early January 2026. Because gold prices are now rising into the center of a strong general reversal zone (and pushing against a resistance line around 4200), we could see a reversal back down any day now. There is another reversal zone coming up in December (Dec. 9 - 22), and that would be a good spot for the long-term cycle bottoms, which would be a good place to buy if prices are in the lower $3000s. For now, I remain on the sidelines of gold.
Silver is VERY tricky to call right now. Prices seem to be forming a triple-top near $54 on Oct. 17, Nov. 13, and today (Nov. 27). Today's high is also in the center of a strong reversal zone. As with gold, it seems like a price fall could be imminent. Silver's current medium-term cycle may be ending now and ready to turn down with a correction to its final bottom. That correction could take prices to the $42 - $47 range over the next week or two. But there's also a possibility that silver began a new medium-term cycle with its low on Oct. 28 ($45.56). If that's the case, silver could be quite bullish and ready to rally to new highs after a more modest correction. We will watch this carefully next week for more clues as to which scenario (bullish or bearish) is in operation. I am on the sidelines of silver for now.
Crude oil's trend has turned bearish. It is, however, late in the medium-term cycle, so a cycle bottom is due soon - probably by the end of December. A normal price target range would be $51 - $55. The longer-term cycles in crude are somewhat ambiguous. If prices can stabilize above $54, the new cycle could be bullish and it could be a good spot to buy. Otherwise, prices could continue their downtrend to lower levels into February 2026. I am still on the sidelines of crude oil.
As we entered the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S., equity markets rose steeply, which is something we expect going into any holiday weekend. We note, however, that Friday is the dead center of a very strong general reversal zone. This means a peak and a sharp downturn could be imminent. As I have noted in previous blogs, we are well into the current medium-term cycles in all three broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ), and we are waiting for the final corrective descent into the final cycle bottoms for all three. That corrective fall should last 2 -5 weeks. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ satisfied that requirement with last Friday's lows, but the DOW did not. This makes me think the DOW will turn down before making a new high and push lower to its final cycle bottom soon. Ideally, this will happen before the end of the reversal zone next Thursday (Dec. 4). The S&P 500 and NASDAQ may also make new lows, although they don't have to. If they don't, it would give us a good bullish divergence signal and a possible spot to buy for another rally (a possible "Santa Claus" rally often seen in December). I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.
We are still waiting for the final bottom to longer-term cycles in gold that should bring prices back down to around $3300. I had predicted that low as early as the end of this month, but prices have been reluctant to fall below $4000, so it looks like we will have to extend the window for a bottom a bit longer - probably to the end of December, or even early January 2026. Because gold prices are now rising into the center of a strong general reversal zone (and pushing against a resistance line around 4200), we could see a reversal back down any day now. There is another reversal zone coming up in December (Dec. 9 - 22), and that would be a good spot for the long-term cycle bottoms, which would be a good place to buy if prices are in the lower $3000s. For now, I remain on the sidelines of gold.
Silver is VERY tricky to call right now. Prices seem to be forming a triple-top near $54 on Oct. 17, Nov. 13, and today (Nov. 27). Today's high is also in the center of a strong reversal zone. As with gold, it seems like a price fall could be imminent. Silver's current medium-term cycle may be ending now and ready to turn down with a correction to its final bottom. That correction could take prices to the $42 - $47 range over the next week or two. But there's also a possibility that silver began a new medium-term cycle with its low on Oct. 28 ($45.56). If that's the case, silver could be quite bullish and ready to rally to new highs after a more modest correction. We will watch this carefully next week for more clues as to which scenario (bullish or bearish) is in operation. I am on the sidelines of silver for now.
Crude oil's trend has turned bearish. It is, however, late in the medium-term cycle, so a cycle bottom is due soon - probably by the end of December. A normal price target range would be $51 - $55. The longer-term cycles in crude are somewhat ambiguous. If prices can stabilize above $54, the new cycle could be bullish and it could be a good spot to buy. Otherwise, prices could continue their downtrend to lower levels into February 2026. I am still on the sidelines of crude oil.
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