MARKETS UPDATE (5:30 pm EDST) after TRADE ALERTS given earlier today.
Both gold and silver's current medium-term cycles are due (overdue) for their final cycle bottoms. It is very likely gold's bottom already happened on April 4 with its $1282 low, and we are getting a re-test of that bottom now. A close below $1280 would be a failure of that re-test which is why that is our stop loss for the long position we entered today. Silver's cycle bottom is still forming, and today's low at $14.85 may be it as it is happening in the current reversal zone (which ends Wednesday). Even if silver edges lower over the next two days, we won't worry unless gold breaks that $1280 line. If the cycle bottoms are in, we should see both metals begin a new rally from here. We are now long in both gold and silver.
As we enter the latter half of the April 9 - 17 reversal zone for equities (and other markets), the DOW and S&P 500 are not making new monthly highs (they are close) while the NASDAQ is, so we still have a bearish divergence signal (at least for today). We could see a medium-term cycle top now in all three indices and a steep correction to follow. That is why we entered a short position today. If all three indices push higher (especially past Wednesday), however, we may have to cover our short position and wait to sell short again at a slightly higher top later in the month or early next month. It is worth chasing this correction as the final correction in a medium-term cycle is usually quite steep. We now have a short position in the broad stock market.
Last Friday's high at $64.65 (May contract chart) in crude oil could easily be a double top to the $64.77 high on April 8, and since it was in the center of our current reversal zone and a medium-term cycle top is due any time, we could now see a correction down to the final cycle bottom. That is why we entered a short position in crude oil today. It's still possible for prices to edge higher before the end of the reversal period on Wednesday, but we will stay short unless prices close above our stop loss of $65.50 or prices push higher after Wednesday. A minimum target for a correction would be around $58, but it could go lower. Holding a short position in crude oil for now.
Both gold and silver's current medium-term cycles are due (overdue) for their final cycle bottoms. It is very likely gold's bottom already happened on April 4 with its $1282 low, and we are getting a re-test of that bottom now. A close below $1280 would be a failure of that re-test which is why that is our stop loss for the long position we entered today. Silver's cycle bottom is still forming, and today's low at $14.85 may be it as it is happening in the current reversal zone (which ends Wednesday). Even if silver edges lower over the next two days, we won't worry unless gold breaks that $1280 line. If the cycle bottoms are in, we should see both metals begin a new rally from here. We are now long in both gold and silver.
As we enter the latter half of the April 9 - 17 reversal zone for equities (and other markets), the DOW and S&P 500 are not making new monthly highs (they are close) while the NASDAQ is, so we still have a bearish divergence signal (at least for today). We could see a medium-term cycle top now in all three indices and a steep correction to follow. That is why we entered a short position today. If all three indices push higher (especially past Wednesday), however, we may have to cover our short position and wait to sell short again at a slightly higher top later in the month or early next month. It is worth chasing this correction as the final correction in a medium-term cycle is usually quite steep. We now have a short position in the broad stock market.
Last Friday's high at $64.65 (May contract chart) in crude oil could easily be a double top to the $64.77 high on April 8, and since it was in the center of our current reversal zone and a medium-term cycle top is due any time, we could now see a correction down to the final cycle bottom. That is why we entered a short position in crude oil today. It's still possible for prices to edge higher before the end of the reversal period on Wednesday, but we will stay short unless prices close above our stop loss of $65.50 or prices push higher after Wednesday. A minimum target for a correction would be around $58, but it could go lower. Holding a short position in crude oil for now.
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