Blog Archives

Trading Blog Monday (late night), March 30, 2026

3/30/2026

GOLD UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)

In my March 12 post on gold, I wrote:

"Gold's medium-term cycle, as well as some of its longer-term cycles, are still unclear at the moment. If we focus on the medium-term cycle, we have two possibilities. The deep low on Feb. 2 ($4406) could be the start of a new cycle. If so, we are expecting a significant sub-cycle corrective dip anytime now. Last week's isolated low (Tuesday) was a bit too early, so we could see another low in next week's general reversal zone that could be the springboard for more rallying..."

"The second possible labeling of the current medium-term cycle says the cycle began way back on Oct. 28 at $3887. In this labeling, the cycle is old and is falling to its final corrective bottom (from the Jan. 29 all-time high). That bottom would be due by the end of this month, probably somewhere near $4400."

Well, gold prices did take a sharp dive to $4100 on March 23. If Feb. 2 was the start of a new medium-term cycle, then that cycle's trend has turned bearish as $4100 is below the Feb. 2 low of $4406. On the other hand, if that March 23 low was the end of the older cycle, gold's trend could still be bullish, and a rally could be starting now that could test the all-time high of $5595 or even exceed it.

Right now, I'm favoring the bearish view. If the current rally can break through the current 15-day and 45-day moving averages ($4708 and $4952, respectively, both falling), I may change my mind. Resistance at those levels could turn prices back down and reinforce the bearish scenario. I am still on the sidelines of gold.

Trading Blog Sunday (late night), March 29, 2026

3/29/2026

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)

A medium-term cycle AND a longer-term 1-year cycle bottom is now due in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). All three indices fell steeply in the second half of last week and made new lows on Friday, which was just one day out of our strong reversal zone (March 17 - 26) and is acceptably inside the reversal (unless these indices fall further into next week).

The DOW got to 45,063, and the S&P 500 got to 6,356. If these are the bottoms to the medium-term and 1-year cycles, it is a bearish sign because these lows are well below the starting points of those medium-term cycles (including the NASDAQ). That suggests the trend has turned bearish, and the initial rally of the new cycles should NOT make new all-time highs before turning down again and falling to deeper levels. If this is true, it could mean a serious longer-term correction has started, and we should probably be looking to sell short the top of any initial rally in the new cycles.

I had been looking to buy the final low of the medium-term cycles for another strong rally - possibly to new all-time highs into the summer - but it looks like under the stress and uncertainty of Trump's war on Iran, this market may be faltering. Wall Street and equity markets do not like uncertainty. I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market as we wait to see whether we get a reversal to the upside next week.

Trading Blog Thursday (evening), March 12, 2026

3/12/2026

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET, GOLD, and SILVER (9:00 pm EDT)

Last week (Wednesday), I wrote on the broad stock market:

"...the target for the 1-year cycle bottom should be lower (closer to 46,000 in the DOW and 6,500 in the S&P 500). There is another strong general reversal zone coming up March 17 - 26. If the market moves lower into that time frame and doesn't fall too far below these target prices, we may have a good spot to buy for more rallying into the summer - possibly to new all-time highs. On the other hand, if these indices break well below 45,500 in the DOW and 6,500 in the S&P 500, our outlook would not be so bullish. In that case, a serious long-term correction could be underway."

All of this still applies as all three indices continue to move down. Today, the DOW got down to 46,662, and the S&P 500 touched 6,670. We could see a final bottom in next week's strong reversal zone, which starts on Tuesday (March 17 - 26). We will watch for this and a potential buying opportunity, depending on how low these indices go. I am still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

Gold's medium-term cycle, as well as some of its longer-term cycles, are still unclear at the moment. If we focus on the medium-term cycle, we have two possibilities. The deep low on Feb. 2 ($4406) could be the start of a new cycle. If so, we are expecting a significant sub-cycle corrective dip anytime now. Last week's isolated low (Tuesday) was a bit too early, so we could see another low in next week's general reversal zone that could be the springboard for more rallying to test the all-time high ($5595 on Jan. 29). If really bullish, however, the price could instead rise to a new high in next week's reversal zone before taking that sub-cycle correction.

The second possible labeling of the current medium-term cycle says the cycle began way back on Oct. 28 at $3887. In this labeling, the cycle is old and is falling to its final corrective bottom (from the Jan. 29 all-time high). That bottom would be due by the end of this month, probably somewhere near $4400. The ambiguity of this market right now precludes any trading, so I am remaining on the sidelines of gold until these cycles become more clearly defined.

Like gold, silver's medium-term cycle is also ambiguous right now. If it is an older cycle, then the final top was the $121 high on Jan. 30, and prices are now falling to a final bottom, due by the end of the month. That bottom could test the low of Feb. 6, around $64, but it might even fall below $40.

But a younger medium-term cycle could also have started with that Feb. 6 low. If that cycle is in play, prices could rally some more; but even with the younger cycle, prices will have to exceed that $121 high over the next several weeks for the trend to stay bullish. If they don't do that, the young cycle could roll over and turn bearish.

It's important to note that it is VERY late in silver's 18-year cycle. That means the 18-year top is overdue, and the $121 "blow-off" top on Jan. 30 could very well have been it. That's a good reason to favor a bearish outlook for now, with a minimal correction to $64, but also the possibility of an eventual plunge to $30.
I am staying on the sidelines of silver for now.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), March 11, 2026

3/11/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)

This week, crude oil prices have shown us how volatile they can be during times of war in the Middle East. Prices jumped to $119 (April contract chart) on Monday before falling back to close around $95. The next day, prices retreated further down to $84. They seem to be headed back up again today, but we are still inside a reversal zone specifically for crude (March 3 - 12), so a top may be forming here (possibly a double-top near $100). If that's the case, we could see crude rolling over now with prices heading lower into next week. On the other hand, the ongoing conflict with Iran could push prices even higher. Sometimes (rarely), we see breakouts in reversal zones (instead of turnarounds), and the current geopolitical environment increases that possibility.

It is fairly late in the current medium-term cycle of crude, so the safest thing to do now is to wait for the final top in the cycle (it may be in already with that $119 high) and then the final corrective bottom for a possible spot to buy. It would be foolish to chase the current rally based solely on the current war, especially this late in the cycle and inside a strong reversal zone. I am remaining on the sidelines of crude oil for now.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), March 5, 2026

3/5/2026

UPDATES on GOLD, SILVER, and CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EST)

On Feb. 12, I wrote about gold:

"Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high."

The status of the medium-term cycle (old or new) is still unclear, although the chances of it being a new cycle are increasing as the price seems reluctant to turn down. Monday's isolated high at $5418 (a possible double-top to the Jan. 29 high) was inside a general reversal zone and could be a signifcant turning point; however, we are now entering another reversal zone specifically for precious metals (March 3 - 12). Another significant top or bottom could be imminent. If prices start to fall, we could see the final bottom of the older cycle next week. But a sudden rally could lead to a significant top in the new cycle that may have started on Feb. 2. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I am staying on the sidelines of gold for now.

On Feb. 16, I wrote about silver:

"Right now, a medium-term cycle bottom is due. It may have happened already with the Feb. 6 low of $64.14, but I think the bottom could go lower - at least to $54, and possibly even lower."

It's still not clear if that low on Feb. 6 was the medium-term cycle bottom. As I mentioned above for gold, we are now inside a reversal zone specifically for these metals. Ideally, I would like to see a deeper bottom (close to $54) inside this time frame (by the end of next week). I am still on the sidelines of silver.

Not surprisingly, the escalating war with Iran is driving crude oil prices sky high. Today, crude broke through a resistance line around $75 (April contract chart) and got to $82 before the trading day was over. Yes, we sold our long position in crude yesterday and missed out on a $6 one-day profit, but we are now in the center of a reversal zone for crude (March 3 - 12, same as for gold/silver), so a top should be imminent. Tensions/wars in the Middle East are a "wild card" factor in crude oil trading, and that makes this market very volatile right now. I am relying on cycle analysis to make trades, as that is more reliable than trying to guess the outcomes of geopolitical wars. It's also important to remember that volatility creates price surges in BOTH directions, so today's profit could be tomorrow's loss. We are now on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), March 4, 2026

3/4/2026

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)

It is late in the medium-term cycles of all three broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ), which began with the lows on Nov. 20 and Nov. 21. It appears that the final tops in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were on Jan. 28, while the DOW's final top came on Feb. 10. This was a strong intermarket bearish divergence signal, and all three indices have now fallen below their 45-day and 15-day moving averages. It is also late in a longer-term 1-year cycle whose final bottom is also now due.

Yesterday's isolated lows COULD be the final bottoms to all these cycles (they were inside a strong reversal zone), but the target for the 1-year cycle bottom should be lower (closer to 46,000 in the DOW and 6,500 in the S&P 500). There is another strong general reversal zone coming up March 17 - 26. If the market moves lower into that time frame and doesn't fall too far below these target prices, we may have a good spot to buy for more rallying into the summer - possibly to new all-time highs. On the other hand, if these indices break well below 45,500 in the DOW and 6,500 in the S&P 500, our outlook would not be so bullish. In that case, a serious long-term correction could be underway. For now, I am remaining on the sidelines of this market.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), March 3, 2026

3/3/2026

CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT (11:30 pm EST)

We had been waiting for crude oil prices to reach our $68 target (April contract chart). Due to the escalating conflict with Iran, that price was greatly exceeded yesterday and today when prices shot to $77.98 before backing down and closing near $74.50. We are still inside a strong general reversal zone, and we just entered a new reversal zone specifically for crude (March 3 - 12). While it's possible the price could surge higher, today's high looks like a significant top and a good place to unload our long position. I am going to sell my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 23 near $60) at tomorrow's market open. The ongoing conflict with Iran will continue to make this a volatile market, but the timing of our trading cycles should help us identify and navigate significant turning points.