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Trading Blog Thursday (evening), January 29, 2026

1/29/2026

CRUDE OIL UPDATE (8:30 pm EST)

Our long position in crude entered on Jan. 23 is doing well as the price has moved from $61 to $66 (March contract chart) in just 4 trading days. There is considerable resistance at $66, however, and we enter another general reversal zone next Tuesday (Feb. 2 - 12). We could see a corrective dip into that time frame, but because this market seems bullish, prices could also edge higher to a potential top in that same window, with a correction following a bit later. I am going to stay long for now with the intention of riding out any correction, unless it goes too deep. The current 15-day moving average is rising steeply and is now approaching a strong support level around $62. That is probably a good stop-loss point for our long position. Even if a correction holds above there, we still need to see a clear break above $66 to support the idea of the trend turning bullish. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving the current rally. We need to be careful as prices could fall as quickly as they rise.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), January 28, 2026

1/28/2026

IMPORTANT UPDATES ON GOLD AND SILVER (11:30 pm EST)

Considering all the social, political, geopolitical, and economic tensions in the world right now, it is not surprising that gold and silver prices have gone parabolic. They are often the first "go-to" safe havens for jittery investors. Nevertheless, prices always rise and fall in cycles, and we need to be aware of some longer-term cycles in both metals that are due or overdue, which could put a bearish cap on the current rallies and usher in a significant correction.

There is an 8-year cycle in gold that could be peaking any time now. The peaks of some shorter cycles could also be imminent, with corrections to follow. Gold's parabolic price rise also suggests a "blow-off" top. If true, a steep correction would follow. The height of a blow-off top is hard to call, but timing it may be facilitated with cycle analysis.
We enter another reversal zone specifically for precious metals early next week (Feb. 3 -12). If a top in gold occurs before then, we could see a corrective low form within that time frame. But if prices continue to push higher, we could instead see a significant top then - especially if we see bearish divergence with silver next week (i.e., one, but not both, metals make a new all-time high). It's too late to chase this parabolic rally, so I'm going to wait for a significant correction before I consider any trade in this metal. If the setup looks right, I may also consider going short if a correction seems imminent.

Silver is very late in a long-term 18-year cycle, and the peak is now due/overdue and could happen at any time. Next week's reversal also applies to silver, so a top could be imminent. As with gold, a blow-off top is certainly possible here. A recent projection for the top was $106 - $113, and that has already been exceeded by today's high of $119. If we see bearish divergence between silver and gold in next week's reversal zone, I will consider selling short. For now, I am remaining on the sidelines of silver.

Trading Blog Monday (late night), January 26, 2026

1/26/2026

UPDATE ON BROAD STOCK MARKET (11:30 pm EST)

Last week, the DOW and S&P 500 dipped and tested the 15-day and 45-day moving averages, while the NASDAQ moved significantly below both. All three indices have since rebounded and are now closing above those averages. This looks bullish, but to confirm this, they all have to make new highs soon, and the NASDAQ has to break above its all-time high of 24,020 from last October to negate its bearish divergence to the other two indices. Until that happens, there is still the danger of this market turning bearish and taking a deep correction. We are now out of a strong reversal zone, but there is a weaker one coming up Feb. 2 - 11. We could see a significant low or a significant high in that time frame, depending on how this market moves this week and next. I am staying on the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), January 22, 2026

1/22/2026

CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT (11:30 pm EST)

Crude oil's current medium-term cycle began with its $54.89 (March contract price) low on Dec. 16. It rose to its first sub-cycle peak ($62.20) on Jan. 14, and then dipped to a potential sub-cycle bottom three days later at $58.53. From there, price have been rising with support just above the 45-day moving average. Monday's low was near the center of our strong general reversal zone (that ends tomorrow). With geopolitical tensions high right now, this market could surge higher, and the current cycle pattern is supporting that idea.

We note that last week's peak tested a downward sloping trend-line near $62. If this market is going to be bullish, it needs to rally above that line (now around $61.70) soon and break above $62.20. There are several longer-term cycles in crude that are currently ambiguous - i.e. they could be bearish or bullish. But based on the current medium-term cycle, prices look bullish, at least short-term. Based on this, I am going to enter a long position in crude for tomorrow's market open. I am putting an initial stop loss for this trade on a close below $58.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), January 21, 2026

1/21/2026

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET and PRECIOUS METALS (11:30 pm EST)

In Sunday's update on the broad stock market, I wrote:

"We are now in the center of that strong reversal zone (Jan. 13 - 23), so a significant top could be forming. If the NASDAQ stays below 24,020 next week, our intermarket bearish divergence signal will stay intact, and a top would likely form before Friday."

The tops may have formed a little early on Jan. 12 (DOW and S&P 500) and Jan.13 (NASDAQ) as all three indices took a deep dive yesterday (Jan. 20) - likely indicating a correction has begun (unless one, two, or all three can pop back up over the next two days to make new highs). There was some rallying today, but the NASDAQ is staying below its 45-day and 15-day moving averages. (The S&P 500 is between those two averages, but the DOW is back above both.)

The testing of one or both of those averages is the minimal requirement for a sub-cycle correction. If this market is going to stay bullish, that could have been it, and we could now see more rallying to new highs. But the bearish divergence signal between the NASDAQ and its two companions remains intact (the NASDAQ still hasn't exceeded its all-time high from October, while the DOW and S&P 500 made new all-time highs last week). That suggests the market could be headed lower for a deeper sub-cycle correction. I am favoring this latter bearish view for now, and
I am remaining on the sidelines of this market.

Both gold and silver are making new all-time highs this week. That's bullish, but it's happening inside a general reversal zone AND a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals that ends this Friday (Jan. 13 - 23). Some sort of top could be imminent with a significant correction to follow.
I am remaining on the sidelines of both metals for now.

Trading Blog Sunday (late night), January 18, 2026

1/18/2026

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET and CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EST)

In my last post on the broad stock market (Jan. 5), I wrote:

"These three indices [DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ] began new medium-term cycles in late November 2025, so all three cycles are young and potentially bullish. A corrective sub-cycle dip is now due, and it may have already happened with that 4-day drop into Jan. 2. If so, we could now see more rallying and a chance for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to make new all-time highs as we move into our next strong reversal zone coming up Jan. 13 - 23."

We did see more rallying into Jan. 12, but only the DOW and S&P 500 made new all-time highs, while the NASDAQ stayed (not far) below its all-time high of 24,020. After a one-day dip last Wednesday, all three indices bobbed back up but did not make any new highs. We are now in the center of that strong reversal zone (Jan. 13 - 23), so a significant top could be forming. If the NASDAQ stays below 24,020 next week, our intermarket bearish divergence signal will stay intact, and a top would likely form before Friday. If it does, the depth of the correction that follows will indicate whether or not this market will turn bearish. For now, we are staying on the sidelines.

Crude oil most likely started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $54.89 on Dec. 16 (Feb. contract chart). From there, it rallied to its first sub-cycle crest on Jan. 14 at $62.36. That crest was inside a reversal zone specifically for crude (Jan. 6 - 15) as well as a general reversal zone for all markets (Jan. 13 - 23). A steep drop followed, but prices seem to be stabilizing around $59 - just above the 15-day moving average. We could easily see a sub-cycle bottom form next week. If it stays above $58, there's a good chance the trend will turn bullish with higher prices still ahead.
I am still on the sidelines of crude oil until we are more certain of the cycle trend.

Trading Blog Wednesday, January 8, 2026

1/8/2026

UPDATE ON CRUDE OIL (1:00 pm EST)

My last post on crude oil (Dec. 29) has not changed. The low on Dec. 16 still appears to be the start of a new medium-term cycle. Prices rallied from there, but couldn't get above the 45-day moving average (so far). Crude may be forming a double-bottom low around $56 (Feb.contract chart). If so, we could see prices heading back up.

We just entered a reversal zone specifically for crude (Jan. 6 - 15) that ends next week, but it overlaps with our general reversal zone for all markets (Jan. 13 - 23). This means we could see a significant top or bottom (or both) within this wide time frame. If prices continue lower and break below the start of the cycle ($54.89), the cycle trend would turn bearish and be pointed down for many more weeks. The double-bottom described above, however, would be more bullish and lead to prices rising to test the downward sloping trendlines I described in the Dec. 29 post:

"There are currently two downsloping upper trendlines in the chart of crude oil. A break and close above both would suggest the more bullish scenario...Those lines are presently around $70 and $73 and falling. If prices stay below those lines, crude could roll over and fall lower into the first few months of 2026."

I am now looking at a downward trendline around $68 and one around $62. There is also strong resistance around $60. Any of these levels could suppress and turn down a rally, but any break above would suggest the trend is turning bullish. When the longer-term cycles in this market become clear, it will be easier to establish a trading position. Until then, I am staying on the sidelines of crude.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), January 6, 2026

1/6/2026

GOLD and SILVER UPDATES (11:00 pm EST)

Last week, I revised my longer-term view of gold:

"I had been expecting gold to make a steep correction down to a longer-term 2.5-year cycle bottom, but it appears that cycle is being bypassed for a longer 4-year cycle. If this is true, gold is bullish, and any serious correction (to the 4-year cycle bottom) will be delayed. We should now be watching for the next medium-term cycle bottom in gold for a possible spot to buy. The medium-term cycle labeling is currently ambiguous. A new cycle may have started either on Aug. 20 or Oct. 28. If it began on Aug. 20, it is an old cycle and ready to correct down to a final bottom. An Oct. 28th start, however, would make the cycle young and prone to more rallying."

The medium-term cycle labeling is still uncertain, but there is a strong reversal zone specifically for gold and silver starting next week (Jan. 13 - 23, same as the general reversal zone for all markets). If prices start falling into that time window, we could see a significant cycle bottom then. Alternatively, more rallying into the same time frame could lead to a cycle top and a subsequent steep correction to a cycle bottom. Either way, we are on the sidelines and now waiting for a medium-term cycle bottom for a possible spot to go long.

After a small dip, silver prices have been rising steeply since New Year's Day. It looks like silver may be making a double-top to last week's surge up to $86.63. If this happens inside the upcoming reversal zone, it may be a good place to sell short. A double-top "blow-off" would likely be followedby a steep drop. We are on the sidelines of silver for now.

Trading Blog Monday (evening), January 5, 2006

1/5/2026

BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (9:00 pm EST)

In last Monday's post on the broad stock market (Dec. 29), I wrote:

"We will see if the rally continues into New Year's Day this Thursday. If all three indices make new all-time highs next week, it could be at least a short-term bullish sign for this new medium-term cycle in equity markets. On the other hand, if the bearish divergence continues, this market could roll over and begin a significant correction down."

All three indices moved down slightly into New Year's day, but today they rallied with the DOW surging to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ, however, did not make new highs, so our intermarket bearish divergence signal remains in place. These three indices began new medium-term cycles in late November 2025, so all three cycles are young and potentially bullish. A corrective sub-cycle dip is now due, and it may have already happened with that 4-day drop into Jan. 2. If so, we could now see more rallying and a chance for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to make new all-time highs as we move into our next strong reversal zone coming up Jan. 13 - 23. The alternative bearish view might see the S&P 500 and NASDAQ staying below new highs and the market rolling over from a top in next week's reversal zone (or rolling over now and making a low in that same reversal window).

The bottom line here is that we need to see all three indices make new all-time highs soon to maintain this market's bullish trend. If that doesn't happen, and these indices start to fall below their November lows, the new medium-term cycles will turn bearish and continue moving down for many more weeks. In that case, we would likely be seeing the start of a serious, longer-term correction. I am staying on the sidelines of this market for now.

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